Historical investment returns: how to read them

Long-run history is the usual starting point for expectations: stocks have tended to return more than bonds over long periods, and bonds more than cash, with more ups and downs along the way. IncomeGrid helps you discover higher-yield income opportunities you may not have looked at, so you can earn more on the same money. It has 40,000+ investment options screened, each with its yield, after-tax yield and a risk level from 1 to 5.

Where to find the data

Data	Free source
Treasury yields by maturity, daily	U.S. Treasury yield curve data
Interest rates and bond yields history	Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED, St. Louis Fed)
Inflation	BLS Consumer Price Index
Deposit rates	FDIC national rates
Fund performance	The fund's own prospectus and reports on SEC EDGAR

How to read a historical return

Period – start and end dates change results a lot.
Nominal vs real – subtract inflation for buying power.
Before vs after tax and fees – published index returns usually exclude both.
Total vs price return – check whether income is reinvested.
Volatility – the average hides the worst years.

What history can and can't tell you

History shows the range of outcomes and the trade-off between risk and return; it can't promise future results, and regulators require funds to say so. For bonds held to maturity, today's yield is a better guide to the return you'll get than past returns.

From history to today

Rather than projecting the past, many income investors compare what is on offer now: current yields after tax at a chosen risk level. IncomeGrid ranks every item by yield after tax for where you live: after federal, state and each investment type tax (Treasuries, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, funds, REITs and filed offerings are each taxed differently).

Sequence matters

Two investors with the same average return can end with very different results if one suffers losses early in retirement while withdrawing income. That's why people living off their investments often keep a few years of spending in lower-risk income assets – so they don't have to sell growth assets after a fall.

Using history sensibly

Use historical data to understand ranges and trade-offs – how far an asset has fallen in bad years, how long recoveries took – not to pick a single expected number. Combine that with today's yields to set expectations for income.

How IncomeGrid helps you earn more

IncomeGrid helps you discover higher-yield income opportunities you may not have looked at, so you can earn more on the same money. It has 40,000+ investment options screened, each with its yield, after-tax yield and a risk level from 1 to 5. Choose where you live and every yield is shown after federal, state and each investment type tax, so you can see which options pay you more.

See today's yields after tax → or browse example income portfolios

Frequently asked questions

What is the historical return of stocks vs bonds?

Over long periods stocks have generally returned more than bonds, with larger swings; exact figures depend on the period and index – check the sources above.

Do past returns predict future returns?

No. They show ranges and trade-offs, not guarantees.

Where can I find historical bond yields?

FRED (St. Louis Fed) and U.S. Treasury yield data.

Not investment advice. General information only; yields change, check the source before acting.